Serbia can guarantee a place in the playoffs for Euro 2012 with a win against Italy on Friday.
Italy have already won qualifying group C but the battle is on for second spot and a place in the two-legged play-offs.
Serbia are in pole position but Estonia, Slovenia and even Northern Ireland could all snatch it from them. Only the Faroe Islands are out of the running.
The permutations are more than just a little confusing but if Serbia beat Italy on Friday, they will ensure they take second place.
Anything else would open the door for one or more of their rivals and a defeat would leave them vulnerable.
Estonia sit a point behind but have only one game left, away to Northern Ireland on Friday.
Slovenia are three points back and their only remaining game is at home to Serbia on Tuesday, meaning they need Italy to win and for Estonia to fail to beat Northern Ireland, to stay in the running.
Northern Ireland host Estonia and then travel to Italy on Tuesday needing to win both and hope Serbia fail to win more than a point.
Even then, in some circumstances second place could come down to head-to-head records.
But all that would be academic if Serbia beat Italy.
They have two advantages; firstly given that Italy are already qualified they have nothing to play for.
What’s more, they have also lost forwards Mario Balotelli and Giampaolo Pazzini and left-back Domenico Criscito to injury.
This game has come off the radar a little due to Italy’s early qualification for the finals but there is still the possibility of some tension surrounding the match.
The other fixture between the teams in October 2010 in Genoa had to be called off just six minutes in due to crowd violence perpetrated by travelling Serbian hooligans.
Some Serbia thugs cut safety netting, climbed safety barriers, threw bangers and flares onto the pitch and at rival Italian fans while they had already caused havoc en route to the stadium from the city centre earlier in the day.
UEFA awarded the match to Italy and Serbia were hit with a two-match stadium ban.
Although there is nothing riding on this match for Italy, their players are still feeling wary.
“Having the game called off due to violence by Serb fans was a shock for everyone,” said Daniele De Rossi.
“In Belgrade I hope there is a fiery atmosphere in the stadium and that they try to intimidate us with their support but without violence.
“The forces of order are going to be paying a lot of attention.”
Italian fans have not been barred from attending the game but the Italian Federation has not asked for a ticket quota and is not selling any tickets to their fans.