Can the home side beat their Wallaby hoodoo this weekend in Cardiff?
Where: Millennium Stadium
When: 17.00 (GMT)
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Warren Gatland may have tried to play it down but the Wales coach knows better than anyone how much it would mean to his side to beat Australia in Cardiff on Saturday.
Reigning Six Nations champions Wales may have won two European Grand Slams since Gatland became their coach in 2008 but his adopted country’s record in the same time against southern hemisphere giants New Zealand, South Africa and Australia in the same period is dire, with just one win and 21 defeats.
Wales have lost their last eight Tests against Australia, albeit four of those reverses have been by three points or fewer, most recently in last year’s fixture at the Millennium Stadium where Kurtley Beale’s late try condemned the Welsh to a 14-12 defeat.
The losing streak is all the more concerning for Wales given they have been drawn alongside Australia and 2015 hosts England in the same World Cup “group of death”.
Gatland tried to explain that poor run of results by saying: “People have got to be aware that probably in the past we’ve used (the November internationals) as a preparation for the Six Nations because that’s our bread and butter — these are friendlies.
“Our focus has changed a bit this autumn.”
But unimpressed Wallaby coach Ewen McKenzie said: “They’ve decided suddenly it’s time to actually go out and beat those teams, I don’t know why they weren’t deciding that last year or the year before.
“He (Gatland) has been at it since 2008, he’s had plenty of time to make that decision.”
This year Gatland coached the British and Irish Lions to a 2-1 series win in Australia and 11 of the players from that squad are in his Wales starting line-up, including fit-again wing Alex Cuthbert and powerhouse flyer George North.
Completing the back three is full-back Leigh Halfpenny, man of the series in Australia but still eager to transfer that form from the red shirt of the Lions to the red of Wales.
“We have been close many times now, one or two points in it,” Halfpenny said.
“It has been very frustrating at times when we’ve come off and felt like we played the better rugby but it didn’t quite win the game.
“Now we have to go to that next level by beating the southern hemisphere teams like Australia,” added Halfpenny, a nominee for the International Rugby Board player of the year award.
Unfortunately for Wales, Australia head into the final major international of 2013 on their best run of form of the year with successive wins over Italy, Ireland and Scotland following a tour-opening defeat by England that scuppered all hope of a Grand Slam.
Saturday’s match is set to see fly-half Quade Cooper, frozen out by former Australia coach Robbie Deans, win his 50th cap.
Meanwhile backs Nick Cummins and Adam Ashley-Cooper return having been among a group of players banned by McKenzie from playing in Edinburgh for their part in a late night drinking session in Dublin.
It was a calculated risk by McKenzie but one that appeared to do the Wallabies little harm against a Scotland side that rarely looked like scoring a try during Australia’s 21015 win last weekend.
Wales ought to pose more attacking threat although they themselves were rendered try-less by South Africa earlier this month.
Several Australia players, including captain and No 8 Ben Mowen, have played more than 30 matches this season.
But McKenzie insisted fatigue would not be an excuse come Saturday.
“We’re treating this week a little bit like our Grand Final,” said the former Australia prop, a World Cup winner as a player in 1991.
“I think everyone will be extremely motivated by the circumstances of the game and the opportunity to play Wales in their backyard,” McKenzie added.
One thing both packs in particular will hope for is an improvement in the quality of the Millennium’s notoriously poor pitch, otherwise scrums, as was sometimes the case on an unusually unstable surface at Murrayfield, could well become a lottery.
Head-to-head record between Wales and Australia
Wales wins: 10
Australia wins: 25
Highest Scores: Wales 29-29, 2006; Australia 63-6, 1991
Biggest Wins: Wales 28-3, 1975; Australia 63-6, 1991
Last five results
2012 Cardiff: AUS 14-12
2012 Sydney: AUS 20-19
2012 Melbourne: AUS 25-23
2012 Brisbane: AUS 27-19
2011 Cardiff: AUS 24-18
Leigh Halfpenny; Alex Cuthbert, Owen Williams, Scott Williams, George North; Dan Biggar, Mike Phillips; Toby Faletau, Sam Warburton (capt), Dan Lydiate; Ian Evans, Alun Wyn Jones; Rhodri Jones, Richard Hibbard, Gethin Jenkins
Replacements: Ken Owens, Ryan Bevington, Samson Lee, Ryan Jones, Justin Tipuric, Rhodri Williams, Rhys Priestland, Liam Williams
Israel Folau, Joe Tomane, Adam Ashley-Cooper, Christian Leali’ifano, Nick Cummins; Quade Cooper, Will Genia; Ben Mowen (capt), Michael Hooper, Scott Fardy; James Horwill, Rob Simmons; Sekope Kepu, Stephen Moore, James Slipper
Replacements: Tatafu Polota-Nau, Benn Robinson, Ben Alexander, Kane Douglas Dave Dennis, Nic White, Mike Harris, Bernard Foley
Referee: Wayne Barnes (ENG)